State Differences in Handgun Permit-to-Purchase Responses: Criminal Usage and Purchasing
Permit-to-purchase (PTP) is a state requirement to obtain a license prior to purchasing a gun. This paper uses synthetic control methods to estimate the effects of PTP laws in three states on gun purchasing behavior and usage for crime, as well as downstream effects on homicides and suicides. In Missouri, repealing PTP led to a 12.9% rise in background checks, a 22 percentage point increase in the self-sourced share of crime guns, and a 2.4-year drop in time-to-crime, alongside a 37.9% increase in firearm homicides and a delayed increase in suicide. Consistent with Missouri, Maryland’s adoption of PTP reduced background checks by 23.4%, lowered the self-sourced ratio by 9.4 points, and increased time-to-crime by 3.3 years, though no short-run mortality effects were detected. Across Connecticut, Maryland, and Missouri, metropolitan areas respond immediately to PTP changes, while effects in rural areas emerge more gradually, if at all.